I don't see dead people...I actually see good news in this story!

Fort Collins home prices take small dip
Region's rates down modest amount when compared nationally
BY PAT FERRIER • PatFerrier@coloradoan.com • May 27, 2009

Fort Collins home prices continue to perform better than the national average, falling less dramatically than the rest of the country.

In the new Standard & Poor/Case-Shiller national home price index released Tuesday, home prices for 20 major cities tumbled by 19.1 percent in the first quarter, the most in its 21-year history.

Fort Collins home prices dropped a relatively small 5.4 percent - to $243,408 - for the quarter and bottomed out at $235,326 in March.

Since then, average sale prices rebounded to $248,418 in April, leading some experts to predict the region's sales prices may have hit bottom.
"The first quarter was not very good in terms of volume and pricing," said Dave Pettigrew of Prudential Rocky Mountain Realtors and a Coloradoan real estate columnist.

"March was the bottom. In terms of average selling price, it was the worst month we've had since at least 2007."

Still, Pettigrew does not believe the region is in danger of seeing any double-digit price declines such as those seen on the Case-Shiller report because there's not enough inventory.

"We're in pretty good shape. We went through all of last year with less than 1 percent average price increase."

Year-to-date, the region's average sale price is down 3.8 percent, a "modest" amount compared with the rest of the country, he said.

Pettigrew expects average sales prices to remain in the $245,000 range that they are currently in.

"I don't expect we'll see anything like March for the rest of the year."

While there's still only about a 50/50 chance of selling one's home in this market and many homes priced below $275,000 are selling relatively quickly, Realtors see lower prices, record low interest rates and the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit as a "great time to be buying real estate," said Chip Parrish, a Realtor with BancWise.

"As first-time homebuyers continue to take advantage of the federal tax credit and excellent terms on FHA loans, the "move-up" buyer market is showing strong signs," Parrish said. "The confluence of great pricing and historically low-mortgage rates has produced an unprecedented market for buying."

We haven't hit bottom, not even close. There's still a moratorium on FNM and FRE foreclosures going on. Banks also don't want to foreclose on an underwater house because then they have to take the loss. And sellers in Larimer still are keeping their underwater homes off the market because they think that prices might go back up. We *still* have the giant slug of ARM resets coming this summer, and unemployment is continuing to go up. Home prices are going to go down down down down for the next couple years. I know a lot of prospective homebuyers who refused to buy in 2003-2007, continued to rent, and continue to build up money for a massive 50% downpayment. When interest rates go to 9-11% because of profligate government borrowing, home prices will fall 40-50% nationwide FROM HERE and those that waited to buy with their bag full of cash will be sitting pretty.