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Below please to here-to-fore-find an e-newsletter I receive weekly from one of my preferred lenders, Ryan Abrahamson of Universal Lending Corporation.
I’ve “cut and pasted it” and therefore probably it will not come out as nicely choreographed because of cut and paste limitations. Should you wish to receive it on a regular basis, I believe there is a subscription link…if not let me know and I’ll get you subscribed…
If you can't see the newsletter, or would like to view it online, use this link
If you have received this newsletter indirectly and would like to be added to our weekly distribution list, use this link
Provided to you Exclusively
By
Ryan Abrahamson& Anne Boward
Ryan Abrahamson & Anne Boward Mortgage Consultants Office: 970-225-2800 Fax: 866-802-0437 Ryan Cell: 970-222-9024 Anne Cell: 970-391-1862 E-Mail: rabrahamson@ulc.com
For the week of Mar 16, 2009 --- Vol. 7, Issue 11
Last Week in Review
"I DO NOT THINK MUCH OF A MAN WHO IS NOT WISER TODAY THAN HE WAS YESTERDAY." Abraham Lincoln. Now more than ever, it's important for our country's leaders to heed yesterday's lessons and make wise choices today for our banking system and the economy. There were several key developments that happened on this front last week - here are some highlights.
On Thursday, the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) Chief Accountant, the Financial Accounting Standards Board's (FASB) Chairman and the Deputy Comptroller for Regulatory Policy in the Treasury Department testified in front of the House Financial Services committee on the "Mark-to-Market" accounting rule. This rule was created so that there would be more transparency in business dealings, but fell prey to the law of "unintended consequences", and has played a major part in our current financial crisis. If you've been receiving this newsletter for awhile, you know this has been discussed several times - and we've even sent you a great explanatory video that breaks down what it all means, and why it has been such a major issue.
Because so many of you have been asking about this topic and great video - I am including the information and video once again in this week's issue - keep reading for the full scoop in the Mortgage Market View article below.
During Thursday's hearing, Congress demanded an answer for repairing this situation within the next three weeks, so right now, it looks like we will see some sort of coordinated action by both the FASB and the SEC to address the Mark-to-Market situation soon. Stocks certainly reacted positively to this news last week, as well as to Citigroup's announcement that it will not need more TARP money from the government. Stocks also liked the remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke that the recession would be over by year-end if the banking situation is stabilized, and that major financial institutions would not be allowed to fail.
In other news, the Retail Sales numbers for February came in better than expected and the numbers for January were revised higher. This report is very volatile from month to month, but the last couple of readings have been encouraging. However, the job market continues to struggle as the number of people receiving unemployment reached a record 5.32 Million. And there was news that China is concerned the US may be spending too aggressively on the recession, which could lead to inflation down the road that would diminish the value of Bonds and China's investments in the US.
Overall, Bonds and home loan rates didn't worsen last week - even with the huge Stock rally - and ended the week relatively close to where they began.
Forecast for the Week
The middle of this week will be action packed with both scheduled economic reports and the Fed's next regularly scheduled meeting, including their policy statement and rate decision being delivered on Wednesday. With all the actions the government has been taking to stabilize our economy, it will be especially important to hear what the Fed has to say.and to see how the markets react.
This week also brings news on the inflation (or deflation) front, with Tuesday's wholesale measuring Producer Price Index (PPI) Report and Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) Report. Given China's concerns mentioned above about US spending to combat the recession and what that could mean for inflation, it will be important to see how these reports come in.
Also this week, we'll get a read on the new construction housing market with Tuesday's Housing Starts and Building Permits Reports. On Thursday, the Philadelphia Fed Report will be released. This monthly survey of manufacturing purchasing managers conducting business around the tri-state area of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware is one of the most-watched manufacturing reports. We'll also have another Initial Jobless Claims report on Thursday, and with the number of people collecting unemployment reaching record highs as mentioned above, it will be important to keep an eye on this report, too.
Remember: Weak economic news normally helps Bonds and home loan rates improve, as money flows out of Stocks and into Bonds. As you can see in the chart below, Bonds were helped by important technical support and were able to hold onto recent gains even with the rally in the Stock market. I'll be watching closely to see how Bonds and home loan rates react to all of this week's events!
Chart: Fannie Mae 4.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Mar 13, 2009)
The Mortgage Market View...
The current economic crisis is the top news story for nearly every media outlet. But until recently, one of the most important factors that led to this challenging market has also been one of the least discussed.
By popular demand, I am again sending along this highly sought after video and article, unpacking the "Mark-to-Market" accounting issue - with some help from Barry Habib. Barry is a highly respected expert on home loans, who serves as Chairman of MSS, an organization that helps me to stay informed as your trusted advisor.
With the help of some easy-to-understand terms and illustrations, you will learn what it has taken the media and politicians many months to take seriously and begin to address.
Link here now to get the real story: www.mortgagesuccesssource.com/go/markmarket/
The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar
Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.
Economic Calendar for the Week of March 16 - March 20
Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Mon. March 16
08:30
Empire State Index
Mar
-32.0
-34.65
Moderate
Mon. March 16
09:15
Capacity Utilization
Feb
71.1%
72.0%
Moderate
Mon. March 16
09:15
Industrial Production
Feb
-1.2%
-1.8%
Moderate
Tue. March 17
08:30
Building Permits
Feb
510K
531K
Moderate
Tue. March 17
08:30
Housing Starts
Feb
453K
466K
Moderate
Tue. March 17
08:30
Core Producer Price Index (PPI)
Feb
0.1%
0.4%
Moderate
Tue. March 17
08:30
Producer Price Index (PPI)
Feb
0.4%
0.8%
Moderate
Wed. March 18
02:15
FOMC Meeting
0.00% - 0.25%
HIGH
Wed. March 18
10:30
Crude Inventories
3/13
NA
749K
Moderate
Wed. March 18
08:30
Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Feb
0.1%
0.2%
HIGH
Wed. March 18
08:30
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Feb
0.3%
0.3%
HIGH
Thu. March 19
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
3/14
NA
654K
Moderate
Thu. March 19
10:00
Index of Leading Econ Ind (LEI)
Feb
-0.6%
0.4%
Low
Thu. March 19
10:00
Philadelphia Fed Index
Mar
-40.0
-41.3
HIGH
The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.
As your trusted advisor, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.
I’ve “cut and pasted it” and therefore probably it will not come out as nicely choreographed because of cut and paste limitations. Should you wish to receive it on a regular basis, I believe there is a subscription link…if not let me know and I’ll get you subscribed…
If you can't see the newsletter, or would like to view it online, use this link
If you have received this newsletter indirectly and would like to be added to our weekly distribution list, use this link
Provided to you Exclusively
By
Ryan Abrahamson& Anne Boward
Ryan Abrahamson & Anne Boward Mortgage Consultants Office: 970-225-2800 Fax: 866-802-0437 Ryan Cell: 970-222-9024 Anne Cell: 970-391-1862 E-Mail: rabrahamson@ulc.com
For the week of Mar 16, 2009 --- Vol. 7, Issue 11
Last Week in Review
"I DO NOT THINK MUCH OF A MAN WHO IS NOT WISER TODAY THAN HE WAS YESTERDAY." Abraham Lincoln. Now more than ever, it's important for our country's leaders to heed yesterday's lessons and make wise choices today for our banking system and the economy. There were several key developments that happened on this front last week - here are some highlights.
On Thursday, the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) Chief Accountant, the Financial Accounting Standards Board's (FASB) Chairman and the Deputy Comptroller for Regulatory Policy in the Treasury Department testified in front of the House Financial Services committee on the "Mark-to-Market" accounting rule. This rule was created so that there would be more transparency in business dealings, but fell prey to the law of "unintended consequences", and has played a major part in our current financial crisis. If you've been receiving this newsletter for awhile, you know this has been discussed several times - and we've even sent you a great explanatory video that breaks down what it all means, and why it has been such a major issue.
Because so many of you have been asking about this topic and great video - I am including the information and video once again in this week's issue - keep reading for the full scoop in the Mortgage Market View article below.
During Thursday's hearing, Congress demanded an answer for repairing this situation within the next three weeks, so right now, it looks like we will see some sort of coordinated action by both the FASB and the SEC to address the Mark-to-Market situation soon. Stocks certainly reacted positively to this news last week, as well as to Citigroup's announcement that it will not need more TARP money from the government. Stocks also liked the remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke that the recession would be over by year-end if the banking situation is stabilized, and that major financial institutions would not be allowed to fail.
In other news, the Retail Sales numbers for February came in better than expected and the numbers for January were revised higher. This report is very volatile from month to month, but the last couple of readings have been encouraging. However, the job market continues to struggle as the number of people receiving unemployment reached a record 5.32 Million. And there was news that China is concerned the US may be spending too aggressively on the recession, which could lead to inflation down the road that would diminish the value of Bonds and China's investments in the US.
Overall, Bonds and home loan rates didn't worsen last week - even with the huge Stock rally - and ended the week relatively close to where they began.
Forecast for the Week
The middle of this week will be action packed with both scheduled economic reports and the Fed's next regularly scheduled meeting, including their policy statement and rate decision being delivered on Wednesday. With all the actions the government has been taking to stabilize our economy, it will be especially important to hear what the Fed has to say.and to see how the markets react.
This week also brings news on the inflation (or deflation) front, with Tuesday's wholesale measuring Producer Price Index (PPI) Report and Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) Report. Given China's concerns mentioned above about US spending to combat the recession and what that could mean for inflation, it will be important to see how these reports come in.
Also this week, we'll get a read on the new construction housing market with Tuesday's Housing Starts and Building Permits Reports. On Thursday, the Philadelphia Fed Report will be released. This monthly survey of manufacturing purchasing managers conducting business around the tri-state area of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware is one of the most-watched manufacturing reports. We'll also have another Initial Jobless Claims report on Thursday, and with the number of people collecting unemployment reaching record highs as mentioned above, it will be important to keep an eye on this report, too.
Remember: Weak economic news normally helps Bonds and home loan rates improve, as money flows out of Stocks and into Bonds. As you can see in the chart below, Bonds were helped by important technical support and were able to hold onto recent gains even with the rally in the Stock market. I'll be watching closely to see how Bonds and home loan rates react to all of this week's events!
Chart: Fannie Mae 4.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Mar 13, 2009)
The Mortgage Market View...
The current economic crisis is the top news story for nearly every media outlet. But until recently, one of the most important factors that led to this challenging market has also been one of the least discussed.
By popular demand, I am again sending along this highly sought after video and article, unpacking the "Mark-to-Market" accounting issue - with some help from Barry Habib. Barry is a highly respected expert on home loans, who serves as Chairman of MSS, an organization that helps me to stay informed as your trusted advisor.
With the help of some easy-to-understand terms and illustrations, you will learn what it has taken the media and politicians many months to take seriously and begin to address.
Link here now to get the real story: www.mortgagesuccesssource.com/go/markmarket/
The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar
Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.
Economic Calendar for the Week of March 16 - March 20
Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Mon. March 16
08:30
Empire State Index
Mar
-32.0
-34.65
Moderate
Mon. March 16
09:15
Capacity Utilization
Feb
71.1%
72.0%
Moderate
Mon. March 16
09:15
Industrial Production
Feb
-1.2%
-1.8%
Moderate
Tue. March 17
08:30
Building Permits
Feb
510K
531K
Moderate
Tue. March 17
08:30
Housing Starts
Feb
453K
466K
Moderate
Tue. March 17
08:30
Core Producer Price Index (PPI)
Feb
0.1%
0.4%
Moderate
Tue. March 17
08:30
Producer Price Index (PPI)
Feb
0.4%
0.8%
Moderate
Wed. March 18
02:15
FOMC Meeting
0.00% - 0.25%
HIGH
Wed. March 18
10:30
Crude Inventories
3/13
NA
749K
Moderate
Wed. March 18
08:30
Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Feb
0.1%
0.2%
HIGH
Wed. March 18
08:30
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Feb
0.3%
0.3%
HIGH
Thu. March 19
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
3/14
NA
654K
Moderate
Thu. March 19
10:00
Index of Leading Econ Ind (LEI)
Feb
-0.6%
0.4%
Low
Thu. March 19
10:00
Philadelphia Fed Index
Mar
-40.0
-41.3
HIGH
The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.
As your trusted advisor, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.
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